Mingtai Aluminum (601677) performance forecast comment: main growth exceeded expectations, unproven performance increased significantly

Mingtai Aluminum (601677) performance forecast comment: main growth exceeded expectations, unproven performance increased significantly

I. Overview of the event Mingtai Aluminum issued a 2019 performance pre-announcement announcement on the evening of January 13, 2020, and expects to achieve net profit attributable to mothers in 20199.

390,000 yuan, an annual increase of 90%.

Second, analysis and judgment performance: non-recurring profit and loss recognition + growth of main business (1) non-recurring profit and loss profit in 2019 is about 2.
.

22 trillion, sales of subsidiary R & D office buildings increased net profit.

50,000 yuan, total government subsidies and wealth management income of about 72 million yuan.

(2) The company deducts non-attribution net profit in 20196.

1.6 billion, an increase of 56% in ten years.

Mainly due to the growth of the main business, the release of aluminum sheet and foil capacity and the volume of high value-added products.

Increased profitability brought by high volume of high value-added products The company supplements its commitment to upgrades and focuses on aluminum for transportation, aluminum for automotive lightweighting, aluminum for new energy lithium batteries, high-end aluminum such as aerospace and military industries, etc.The gradual release of value-added products brings increased profitability.

Automotive aluminum alloys and transportation aluminum projects have been put into production successively, with an annual output of 12.

The “5-inch aluminum alloy plate project for vehicles” has been put into production in 2018; the “annual production of 2 plug-in aluminum profiles for transportation projects” has a high added value, with a gross profit margin of 30%, far exceeding the company’s other products’ gross profit margin (about 10%).

Continue to lay out high-end products, and upgrade the aluminum sheet production line upgrade project invested by the company. The project has a total production capacity of 25 tons.

The products include aluminum alloy pre-stretched plates, medium and heavy plates, aluminum plates for containers, aluminum plates for carriages, hot rolled coils for tank trucks, etc., as well as aluminum construction maintenance plates, irrigation and replacement.And aluminum alloy plate and strip for mobile phone battery cases.

The construction period of the project is 2 years, and the added value of the company’s products will be further enhanced after it is put into production.

Third, investment proposals continue to be optimistic about the company’s increased profitability due to the volume and proportion of high value-added products in the future.

As the main business growth exceeds expectations, we expect the company’s EPS to be 1 in 2019/2020/2021.

58/1.

29/1.

47 yuan, corresponding PE is 6/7/6 times, the current company is estimated to be replaced with a historical low of 5 years (within 15% quantile), maintaining the “recommended” rating.

Fourth, the risk reminds that the production and sales volume 杭州桑拿 is less than the expected risk; the exchange rate fluctuation risk.