The Spring Festival is coming to the market in the short-term or mainly in shock consolidation
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[Focus of the week]The Spring Festival is approaching, and the market will be mainly organized in a short period of time!
Source: China Europe Fund’s original small Europe review last week, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 0.
2%, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.
54%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.
69%, GEM Index rose 1.
By industry, computers (3.
40%), electron (2.
64%) and medical biology (1.
56%) top three gains; leisure services (-3.
31%), transportation (1.
98%) and banks (-1.
81%) the first three declines (wind, statistical interval: 2021 / 13-1 / 19, Shenwan industry level classification).
(Wind, statistical interval: 2020/1 / 13-1 / 19) Computer analysis of key sectors will increase first, mainly because the market expects that after 5G commercial landing, TV programs will switch from HD to 4K, and related stocks in the sector will benefit;Secondly, it was mainly due to the increase in the semiconductor sector. Pharmaceutical and biological growth was the third, mainly because the results of the second batch of centralized mining last Friday were exposed, and some leading stocks benefited from the sector’s strength.
(Wind, statistical interval: 2020/1 / 13-1 / 19, Shenwan industry-level 佛山桑拿网 classification) It is recommended to pay attention to 5G, consumer electronics, PCB, photovoltaic and cloud games and other directions. In the short term, you can pay attention to MCN, independently controllable and domestic chips.And other theme sections.
China-Europe Funds’ Views December 2019 Interim Report added Social Finance2.
1 trillion, of which 370 billion was boosted by the caliber adjustment.
If calculated according to the old caliber, the supplementary society will be merged into 1.
73 trillion, slightly exceeding the market1.
65 trillion expected.
M2 growth rate increased significantly to 8.
7%, exceeding market expectations.
We believe that the potential contradiction of the stabilization of the macro economy in 2020, and the short-term economic improvement will hinder the gradual reduction of interest 夜来香体验网 rates, and market interest rates pose upward risks. At the same time, it also means that the stock market may rely more on the recovery of earnings rather than monetary easing.
The strength of the short-term economic stabilization is more likely to come from the upward reorganization of the consumption and technology cycles, and the traditional real estate infrastructure investment cycle may be gradually replaced.
Allocation recommendations The market performance was differentiated last week, and the technology sector showed significant excess returns.
In terms of the industry sector, we continue to be optimistic about the direction of science and technology. It is recommended to focus on 5G, consumer electronics, PCB, photovoltaic and cloud games. In the short term, we can focus on the theme sectors such as MCN, autonomous controllable and domestic chips.
In terms of the bond market, based on comprehensive judgment, our judgment on the long-term downward trend of interest rates has not changed, but in the short term, this round of liquidity easing and initial allocation will bring the market to an end.
From a fundamental perspective, various types of macro data show that the economy is stabilizing, which will exert upward pressure on interest rates.
From the monetary policy budget, the economic improvement will hinder the extension of interest rate cuts.
The current trend of increasing leverage in the bond market is likely to trigger related reactions and may tighten liquidity in the short term.
Strategically, it is recommended that long-term positions can be considered for profit settlement, appropriately shorten the duration sinking qualification, and wait for another allocation opportunity.