Aoyang Shunchang (002245): Differentiated competition in the battery field LED segment is trying to change

Aoyang Shunchang (002245): 杭州龙凤夜网 Differentiated competition in the battery field LED segment is trying to change

Established in 2002, Aoyang Shunchang is a leading company in the domestic metal logistics distribution industry, and has a high market share in the downstream IT and automotive fields.

The company is good at the cost management experience accumulated in the traditional main industry, and has cut into the LED chip and lithium battery industries to achieve diversified development.

At present, the company is in the domestic first echelon in the field of LED chips, and the lithium battery sector is the leader in the domestic segmentation.

  The cost leadership turned to technology-driven, and the profit potential of the LED business reversed.

In 2019, the LED chip industry experienced the lowest boom in history, and most companies in the industry replaced it.

At present, the inventory levels of major LED chip manufacturers are approaching low levels, and low-end production capacity is gradually eliminated. New technologies such as mini-LED will bring new growth points to the industry.

Therefore, the industry boom is expected to pick up in 2020.

In 2019, the company will change its business strategy, adjust from cost leadership to technology leadership, deploy high value-added products, and adjust its product structure.

  In 2020, the company’s new products will gradually increase volume, the traditional lighting LED chip revenue will significantly decrease the proportion, and at the same time gradually increase its dependence on the major customer Mu Linsen.

The added value of the new product is significantly higher than the traditional lighting products, which will increase the profitability of the LED business.

We expect the company’s LED business to turn around in 2020 and return to the profit channel next year.

  Deeply plow the power tool market and benefit from the trend of cordless power tools in the future.

The company entered the lithium battery industry through the acquisition of Jiangsu Lvwei in 2016. At present, it focuses on the research and development and production of lithium batteries, and its lithium battery product revenue and net profit growth have remained at a high level.

The rapid spread of cutting-edge worldwide cordless power tools has affected the penetration of lithium batteries in power tools.

At present, the company’s market share in the global power tool lithium battery market is second only to international giants, but its growth rate exceeds that of its competitors. At the same time, the company’s customers in the field of power tools continue to expand, and customers have made breakthroughs in the high-end two-wheeler market.

  Profit forecast: We expect the company’s revenue in 2019-2021 to be 35.

82, 40.

46 and 46.

3.7 billion, net profit attributable to mothers was 1.

41, 2.

28 and 3.

3.1 billion.

The current P / E ratios corresponding to 2020-2021 are 22 杭州桑拿网 respectively.

7 and 15.

6 times, estimated to be lower than comparable companies and at their historical level.

The company is a leading company in the domestic metal logistics and distribution industry, with stable cash flow. In the lithium battery sector, the company has differentiated competition and has deeply cultivated the field of power tools with outstanding advantages.

At the same time, the company’s LED segment is driven by cost leadership and technology, and it is expected that the business profit will change.

For the first time, we have given a “recommended” investment rating.

  Risk warning: “New Crown” affects more than expected; LED chip and battery product prices continue to fall; customer development and order conversion are less than expected; market systemic risks, etc.